The Zvizdets Mangustu [Mongoose (operation) is fucked up] Telegram channel: For the time being, the advance of the Russian GT "Center" toward Dobropillia looks like a move "off-target," as it is proceeding largely in a direction perpendicular to the Druzhkivka–Kramatorsk axis. In this sense, it would be more logical for its command to focus on its right flank (within the sector of the 51st CAA)—specifically toward Druzhkivka and along the Kucheriv Yar–Andriivka axis—rather than stubbornly battering the AFU’s Dobropillia defense zone. However, for the time being, it continues to prioritize attacks toward Dobropillia, operating in the direction of Druzhkivka with only limited forces and assets from its 51st CAA. At the same time, it clearly remains intent on a "breakthrough to Druzhkivka," as it stays quite active on both banks of the Kazennyi Torets River—despite isolated counterattacks by the AFU in the area—albeit not as intensely as in the Dobropillia direction itself. Moreover, about a month ago, open sources reported the arrival in this area of several units from the 41st CAA and the 90th TD (part of the same GT "Center"); these units participated in several concerted enemy attempts to break through near Sofiivka toward Pavlivka and north of Toretske. If this information is accurate, it is highly likely that the Russian command—while intensifying offensive operations in the Dobropillia direction—is SIMULTANEOUSLY attempting to covertly reinforce the right flank of its GT "Center," specifically in the direction of Druzhkivka. This is entirely understandable and logical, as it would allow the adversary to achieve a significant operational effect—crucial to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive operation. Specifically, by concentrating and deploying ADDITIONAL forces and assets in this area, they could densify the operational formation of troops within the zone of their 51st CAA—NOT ONLY in the Dobropillia direction but also from the southwest toward Druzhkivka. Furthermore, given that the troops of the neighboring 8th CAA (part of the GT "South")—operating near Kostiantynivka and to its west—have already reached the area of the villages of Osykove and Dovha Balka, the army's command now has the opportunity to redeploy elements of its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions (MRDs) to its left flank. This potential is further amplified by the deployment of the newly formed 84th MRD in the Kostiantynivka direction (see my previous overview). Taking everything into account, one can reasonably conclude that—in an operational-strategic sense (i.e., within the scope of the entire Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive)—the Russian military command is stubbornly and persistently CONTINUING its efforts to form a southern pincer arm (flank) to envelop the entire Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration; this arm is intended to span a broad front and be reinforced with additional troops and assets. This implies an intention to bring the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive to a "victorious conclusion" in the near future, regardless of any "unpleasant minor incidents" along the Lyman direction. However, a major problem for them could arise if these "incidents" In the Lyman direction turn out to be far from minor and instead entail significant operational consequences—such as substantially slowing the advance of the Russian 3rd CAA (part of the GT "South") south of the Siverskyi Donets River. Furthermore, if Dobropillia and Druzhkivka manage to "hold out"—at least until mid-to-late December of this year—then this entire Russian operational-strategic endeavor regarding Sloviansk-Kramatorsk will, figuratively speaking, go up in smoke. It will simply have to be "rewritten" (in the sense of being planned), organized, and executed almost "from scratch," based on realities completely different from those envisioned by the Russian General Staff this spring. 🇺🇦Subscribe to the channel Репортёр Why Russia's operation in Ukraine was called "Mongoose Throw" "Mongoose Throw". So even before the start of the operation, they called the plan of the Russian army in Ukraine. This was written about both in the West and in Russia itself. What is a mongoose toss? In nature, this is the name of the well-known behavioral…
Российские войска продолжают наступление на Добropicilia
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