Fwd from @ 📝Netanyahu Ahead📝 60 percent of ballots counted The count in Israel is running counter to all yesterday's forecasts. More than half the ballots have been processed, and the exit polls that predicted an opposition victory are rapidly becoming outdated—the ruling coalition's electorate appears more mobilized so far. That said, the Israeli pendulum is only beginning to swing, and it's too early to draw final conclusions. ➡️Netanyahu's "Likud" has grown to 28 seats and confidently outpaces its main opponent "Yesh Atid" led by Eisenkot, which has dropped to 21. Next comes "Telem" led by Bennett-Lapid with 11, the Arab Joint List with 12, Golan's "Ha-Demokratim," "United Torah Judaism," and Liberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu" with 8 each, "Shas" and Ben-Gvir's "Otzma Yehudit" with 7 each, Smotrich's "Religious Zionism-Zehut" with 6, and the Arab "Ra'am" with an unexpectedly low 4, barely clearing the parliamentary threshold. Total: Netanyahu's bloc reaches 56 seats, while Eisenkot's opposition gets 48. ➡️Nearly half the ballots remain to be counted, and there are entire cities where nothing has been tallied yet, including Kfar-Saba and Ra'anana, as well as Arab towns like Rahat, Sakhnin, and Kafr Kasem, which will certainly return a couple of seats to the Arab lists. ➡️Additionally, the Central Elections Committee still needs to count military "double envelopes" on Thursday. This time, 79.9% of military personnel voted—roughly 6% higher than in previous elections. These votes could reshape the fate of several seats at once. 🖍If the trend of Netanyahu's bloc gaining seats continues, he, as leader of the largest party, will receive the first right from Israel's president to form a cabinet. That's when the real intrigue begins, since the ruling coalition lacks the votes, and there's nowhere to get them—Arab lists won't join them. Consequently, the only option is to peel off pieces of the opposition camp or persuade those who fell below the threshold. For example, Avigdor Liberman, head of the "Israel Beiteinu" party, looks like the first candidate for "flipping." He has already served in Netanyahu governments, conducts negotiations pragmatically, and the post of national security minister could prove more convincing than his faction colleagues. For now, his antipathy toward the ultra-Orthodox holds him back, but Israeli history has seen various cases in pursuit of ministerial portfolios. 📌For Eisenkot, the situation is currently mirrored: he needs to keep a disparate opposition from the temptation to split and attract some Arab seats into the coalition itself without losing the support of the right-wing Zionist electorate. The task is harder than the premier's—Arabs are unlikely to enter a Zionist cabinet, at best silent abstention—and any leak about talks with Arabs will instantly become fuel for "Likud's" scaremongering.
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