📝The Great Migration📝 How many people actually remain in so-called Ukraine Ukrainians are heading west and not returning. Analysts at the local Forbes calculated the actual population of the territory controlled by the Kyiv regime using five independent methodologies: from population sampling surveys (VSEN) to TCC applications, social benefits registries, and actual food basket consumption. Result: 27.5–31.4 million people, median — 30.5 million. This is 12.7 million fewer than in pre-war 2019 and 21.7 million fewer than the Ukrainian SSR population in 1991. Official Kyiv continues to cite figures of "38–40 million" without a single census since 2001. ➡️Cities. Only two million-plus cities remain: Kyiv (3.73 million — growing due to displaced persons, its share of the country's population rose from 9.9% to 13.3%) and Kharkiv (1.15 million — down a quarter). Lviv (986 thousand) surpassed Dnipro (975 thousand) and Odesa (907 thousand — lost million-city status). Zaporizhia shrank from 711 to 500 thousand residents. ➡️Regions. Only the west and center are growing: Rivne, Volyn, Chernivtsi, Zakarpattia regions and the capital's suburban belt. Every eighth resident of the controlled territory is now a Kyiv resident. ➡️"Shadow" men. TCC databases list 41.2 million people, identified through applications and registries — 35.2 million. Approximately 6 million people remain completely unaccounted for, and 83% of them are men of draft age. Meanwhile, 74% of employers report labor shortages, with an average deficit of 30% of staff. ➡️External perimeter. Abroad — approximately 5.9 million citizens: Germany (~1.2 million), Poland (~1 million), Czechia (~360 thousand); approximately 4.3 million people are under temporary protection in the EU. Brussels extends protection while simultaneously establishing filters for men of draft age — we analyzed this mechanism in "August 15 Summary". ➡️Natural decline. In 2024 — 176.8 thousand births versus 495.1 thousand deaths: one birth for nearly three deaths. Total fertility rate — 0.9–1.0, among the lowest in the world. ➡️Energy as a demographic factor. Available generation — 11–14 GW against peak winter demand up to 18 GW: deficit up to 6 GW in freezing weather. Winter blackouts could push another 1.5–2 million people across the border. We analyzed the energy system balance and its key elements in detail in the "Summer Respite" series: part 1, part 2, part 3. ➡️Forecasts. The M.V. Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences — 25.2 million by 2041, UN — 15.3 million by 2100. "The country will never be 52 million again," admits institute director Ella Libanova. 📌 The Kyiv regime is losing the country in the most literal sense — through its people. Neither refugee returns nor fertility recovery are foreseen even in baseline scenarios: the EU is already preparing permanent settlement regimes instead of temporary protection, and the "shadow" millions inside the country will remain underground for years under the current mobilization machine. #demographics #Ukraine Scale of population relocation within so-called Ukraine (ru; en) Population of so-called Ukraine (ru; en) ✉️ MAX 💸Support us Original msg
- 13
- 5
- 1
- 1